KZN and Gauteng battlegrounds as ANC's future litmus test.

 KZN and Gauteng battlegrounds as ANC's future litmus test

Bheki Mngomezulu, Prof.

The general election date for this year is May 29, according to a Tuesday announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa. This came after discussions over their level of preparedness to hold this election with the Premiers of each of the nine provinces and the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC). An statement like this put an end to rumors regarding the numerous dates that individuals had proposed for the election day. While it is true that each of the nine provinces may influence the outcome of the election in favor of any political party, some of the key elements that set some provinces apart in this regard are their respective populations and economic standing. The economic activity of these two leading provinces is the second cause. When it comes to its GDP (gross domestic product) contribution, Gauteng is the province that performs the best.



KZN comes in second place once more. In subsurface minerals exists Gauteng. KZN is proud to have two bustling harbors: Richards Bay and Durban.

Thirdly, the ANC and the IFP are fighting for control of these two provinces. In the past, Gauteng was one province that drew a large number of KZN residents who came to work in the mines or to settle there. Both Gauteng and KZN have been provinces of importance to the IFP and the ANC, with the former receiving its support primarily—though not exclusively—from the Zulu people. There are several causes for that.

The population density is the primary cause. According to the most recent figures, Gauteng has the largest voting population (23.53%) out of all nine provinces, with 6,497,792 people. KwaZulu-Natal, at 5,726,609, or 20.74%, is ranked second. Third place goes to the Eastern Cape, with 3,432,638 points, or 12.43%. Limpopo is in fourth place with 2,771,809, or 10.04%, followed by Mpumalanga in fifth place with 2019,664, or 7.31%. A element connected to the aforementioned is the rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK). Former President Jacob Zuma declared on December 16 that he will be canvassing for the MK party instead of the ANC. Numerous political parties, including the ANC, are threatened by this. According to EFF leader Julius Malema's perspective, Gauteng has already strayed from the ANC. KZN was therefore the next province that the ANC wanted to keep. He thinks that thwarting the ANC's intentions to hold onto KZN will further erode the party's standing and raise the likelihood that the EFF or any other party, like the IFP, will remove the ANC from office in that province.

Another reason for KZN is that, in terms of support, it has been the ANC's largest province nationwide. This implies that increasing support in KZN and Gauteng would be necessary for anyone hoping to perform well in the upcoming election. Furthermore, the ANC's largest region in the nation is eThekwini.  Along with crisscrossing Gauteng, members of the Multiparty Charter for South Africa—formerly known as the Moonshot Pact—have also been visiting KZN. They have been acting in this way to make sure they get sufficient support in these provinces in order to form a coalition after the election.

There is yet hope for both national and local coalition administrations. The fact that the official opposition, the DA, and the ruling party, the ANC, have both been in decline lends credence to this viewpoint. In the meanwhile, political organizations such as the EFF, IFP, and Freedom Front Plus (FF+) have seen growth.

But none of these groups has developed to the point where it could take the ANC's place on its own.  This implies that a grand alliance or a coalition of minorities is not out of the question. Every political party needs to begin getting ready for these kinds of alliances. Not just the ANC, DA, or its coalition partners, but also all other political parties and independent candidates, should be interested in Gauteng and KZN.

The Western Cape remains important to the DA notwithstanding these circumstances. The party is still going to do every effort to hold onto the Western Cape. However, it is well known that the DA has expressed interest in KZN and Gauteng.  These arguments make it clear that Gauteng and KZN will be two crucial provinces in determining the result of this year's election. Any political party operating in these two provinces without making the necessary investments would be operating at its own risk. Because every vote matters, the remaining seven provinces continue to be significant in and of themselves. In determining who wins this year's election, Gauteng and KZN will surely lead the field.

*Prof. Mngomezulu is the director of Nelson Mandela University's Center for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy.